I always mention this in one way or another in discussions but I didn't know what it is called ! While reading this article by Michael Lewis. I learned about 'conjunction fallacy'. Here is what Wikipedia says about it. I am glad to know about another principle which I always thought about and is very well known in psychological academic world... The conjunction fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman:
85% of those asked chose option 2.^{} However the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone—formally, for two events A and B this inequality could be written as , and ...Tversky and Kahneman argue that most people get this problem wrong because they use the representativeness heuristic to make this kind of judgment: Option 2 seems more "representative" of Linda based on the description of her, even though it is clearly mathematically less likely. More details on Wikipedia |
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